Grain futures rise

The marketts move and gyrate on any whiff of 'news' or 'reason', how can a trader discern the effect or impact of a news event (which may include so called fundamentals)?

http://www.forexpros.com/news/commodities-news/grain-futures-higher;-soy,-corn-gain-on-south-america-crop-delays-240112

The spring was sprung..

Spring is coiling...

60 min fcpo, one always wants to trade on the same side as te elephants...

The cockamanie story today is "yes there is record stock levels of cpo, but recent rains are hampering attempts to get at the stocks"

 

and "Demand from China is lousy, but the Europeans are importing like crazy"

Soybeans bottomed out?

As traders, we are often bombarded with such bullshit 'news' stories....

"Palm Oil set to surge 21% as demand returns, Sime says"

Why 21% why not 25%? 21.3% 22.2222%? This is equally as bad as so called expert forecasters such as Mistry plucking targets of 2,200 per tonne, based on predictions on inventory data.
Which is why the charts provide the objective and unbiased opinion of market direction, because we can make educated guesses on where the 'big elephants' are headed.

"In the long run fundamentals determine the price, but as Lord Keynes said, in the long run, there is one certainty, WE ARE ALL DEAD"

"When you make gains, stand up and take the accolades, if you lose be accountable and attribute any loss to yourself, not to any manipulation or otherwise" Stanley Kroll

Move was down...

 

"If you ever had to ask someone's opinion on a trade or market direction (assuming that other knows better), then you should not be in the trade or getting the hell outta it." We see it every day, trader keeps asking other traders their opinion on the outright position, this spread, that spread...

Getting set for the next move...

2508 opening...

3510 next pivot level..

Nov/Dec FCPO spread, 30 min.

Why the 1 min chart? To compensate for the volatility 5 to 10% per day...

Corn, Soybean Oil and Soybeans

Stabilising CPO prices

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2012/10/13/business/12158405&sec=business

Grinding up action....

News of the govt approval in principle for export tax cut... It is not a good idea to buy on release of 'good news'.

 

Trader X asks trader Y, "How can fcpo go up with high inventory levels?"

 

When the market seems irrational, we are missing something...

In the long run, fundamentals determine price. But as lord Keynes put it, "In the long run, we are all dead"

"The market is always right..."

The news from MPOB data was significantly bearish, the expectant traders who were short are 'damning' the market for 'notogoing down...

1 min fcpo, you only need to get one trend, not trade like a headless chook all the time...